Baseball's Back: NL West Preview

Well, I’m back from hibernation. Just in time for baseball season. Which means 6 more months of beating my head against a wall.
In what may turn out to be a full National League preview, here’s my 2006 NL West Division preview in order of last year’s finish:

1. San Diego Padres 2005 Record: 82-80 (684RS, 726RA)

The Breakdown:

The Padres feature a murderer’s row of Brian Giles, Mike Piazza, Vinny Castilla, and Ryan Klesko. Well, if it was 1999, it would be considered a murderer’s row when that group combined to mash 133 bombs, drive in hundreds of runs, and rammed 385 doses of bovine growth hormone into their collective ass cheeks. But in 2006, these has-been fucks will have combined for 144 years on the planet. The only good thing about that is that none of these dudes are Dominican, so at least San Diego can feel good about their actual ages, though Vinny Castilla’s immigration status could be a problem should California get strict with the border security issues.

The Padres should catch the ball with Dave Roberts covering left field and Khalil Spicoli at short. Mike Cameron will provide excellent range in center which will not only help cut down doubles in the gap, but also prevent guys stealing second from scoring when Piazza throws the ball into right center. The “X’ Factor will be how Cameron’s range will be inhibited by his wearing a football helmet on the field.

The top of the rotation is strong with Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Peavy is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league period and a preseason Cy Young candidate. Chris Young is trying to build off of a very successful rookie campaign in a launching pad of a ballpark. After the top two, the rotation falls off a cliff with castoffs Woody Williams, Shawn Estes and Chan-Ho Park. You’ve gotta feel for a guy like Chan-Ho Park. When you think of his career, what immediately comes to mind? The $60M contract he didn’t even come close to living up to? The flying judo kick during a fight at the mound? Serving up Barry Bonds’ record breaking home run? Tossing some pus right down the middle of the dish to Cal Ripken’s Corpse in the All-Star game? Or maybe you’re like me and you just wonder if he’s related to the venue where the Cubs have spring training—HoHoKam Park. Either way, it’s not been a great career for Mr. Park. But look on the bright side—his government just waived his mandatory military service for Korea’s performance in the World Baseball Classic.

The bullpen is once again anchored by 38 year-old Trevor Hoffman. Seems like it’s been going on 5 years that everyone expects Hoffman to finally fall victim to Padre Tiempo, but all he does is go out and dominate with one of the greatest changeups the game’s ever seen. The K/BB ratio and ERA aren’t what they once were, but the guy went out and went 43 for 46 in Save opportunities last year. He’s one guy I wouldn’t bet against.
The guys who are supposed to get him the ball with the lead is another story. Take a walk down memory lane with me. Remember back when you were a kid and you’d open a dozen packs of Topps cards and when the wax and shitty gum had settled, you had 2 good cards and 15 each of some guy who barely made the 40 man roster, who you’d never heard of, yet somehow he’d managed to stitch together a career? That’s the rest of the Padres’ bullpen. It’s Hoffman and a handful of Al Pedriques, Tim Teuffels, Vance Laws, and Craig Lefferts.

The Prognosis:

The Padres were way upside down last year in their Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed and backed in to the division crown on account of everyone else being shittier. They really are the epitome of the boardroom scene in Major League:

“I ain’t heard of half these guys and the ones I have heard of are way past their prime.”

“Some of these guys never had a prime.”

This team is older and worse than they were last year, but due to the expected continued mediocrity of everyone else, they’ll finish 3rd, at 78-84.


2. Arizona Diamondbacks 2005 Record: 77-85 (696RS, 856RA)

The Breakdown:

Arizona could be the sleeper team of this crappy division or they could just as easily be battling Colorado for the basement. They’re very left-handed in the projected lineup with Mr. Rush Counsell, Chad Tracy, Luis Gonzalez, and Shawn Green all starting when healthy and on non-Jewish High Holidays. However, with Counsell battling shoulder problems, there’s a strong possibility that rookie Steven Drew could start the season at short. If Drew turns out to be a durable, non-pussy version of his older brother JD, AZ could have itself a franchise SS. The aforementioned Green and Gonzalez are clearly on the downside of their careers, but if healthy should have no problem combining for 40 HR and 140 RBI. Chad Tracy is poised for a breakout year, but will he put it together or fall victim to the hype? The local media has been fawning over this guy since he was brought up a couple of years ago. If this team is going to succeed, he’s going to have a big year. Orlando Hudson and Eric Byrnes will provide quality defense and energy up the middle, but Troy Glaus’ 37 bombs are going to be sorely missed. Phenom Conor Jackson won’t be having his glove cast gold any time soon, but the 1B job is his to lose, relegating Tony Clark, his 30+ homers, and his amazingly prematurely aged dome to a reserve role. Conor Jackson also represents the beginning of the Era of the Generation of Pretentiously Named Fucking Children. Expect Caleb Jones, Bailey Smith and Carter Brown to round out the infield in the next couple of years.

This staff is what experts and pundits like to refer to as “a fucking mess.” Brandon Webb is a younger, Arsenio Hall-shaped headed version of Derek Lowe. Minus the World Series heroics, no-hitter and 20 win seasons. Webb is a #3, #2 at best who’s been stuck in the #1 hole due to the lack of options. Now that Chan Ho Park’s deal is coming off the books, Russ Ortiz is now the proud owner of the worst contract in baseball. Ortiz is the 3rd highest paid player on the team and probably like the 39th best player on the 40 man roster. Plus he looks like that fat punk kid from your little league team who could throw ok but he was the coach’s kid so he got to pitch all the time. Boy, what a rat-faced fucker he is. Oh yeah, he’s got nothing left in his arm either. So just keep trying to pitch up in the zone, dick, when your 4-seamer’s topping out at 87.
Did I mention Ortiz is #2 on the depth chart? Filling out the rotation are Miguel Batista, back for a 2nd tour with AZ (from Tor. in the salary-dumperrific Troy Glaus deal), El Duque, who’s winning his bet with Fernando Valenzuela about who can get away with lying about their age by the biggest margin, and whoever picks the winner on the Jumbotron Ketchup, Mustard, and Relish race.

The Arizona bullpen is in much the same same as San Diego’s, except without the Hall of Famer anchoring it. Arizona’s closer is Jose Valverde whose nickname, we’re told, is “Papa Grande.” “Papa Grande” is brought to you by the same corporate weenie nicknaming group that brought you The G-Force (an ‘homage’ to the Astros’ Killer B’s), Bank One Big Flies (a corporate shill of a home run call) and D’Baxter D’Bobcat (worst mascot in history from the town that is home to the Phoenix Suns’ Gorilla and ought to know better.)

The Prognosis:

This team might score the same amount of runs but there’s just not enough pitching here or on the horizon. Arizona has some exciting impact position players near ready, but there aren’t any arms at high A ball. They’ll be in the scrum in the middle of the pack, my prediction: 75-87, good for fourth.

3. San Francisco Giants 2005 Record 75-87 (649RS, 745RA)

The Breakdown:

First off, let me say, “Fuck the Giants. Fuck them with a dirty syringe”

Ah, that felt good.

Next let me say, “Holy shit is this team ever old!”

The only thing more cliché when talking about the Giants than bringing up the ‘roids is their age. But holy shit is this team ever old! Let’s get the Barry Bonds thing out of the way: Blah blah, this team will do as well depending on how much Bonds plays. It sucks not to have much more insight than that, but it really is true. And the way things are looking right now is ‘not good.’ The Giant’s spring training camp is having wet dreams over the fact that Bonds scored from first on a double. That’s like giving the C- student the attendance award at school—you gotta accentuate the mediocrity.
Newcomer Randy Winn better be ready to cover a lot of cavernous ground at TPFKASBC-Park with Bonds being fitted for a walker in left and Moises Alou in right. Moises Alou is so old teammates can’t distinguish him from his old-ass father who manages the team. Felipe Alou is so old he can’t distinguish himself from his son who pisses on his own hands and often has to be returned to the dugout by the right field line ball boy when he goes wandering off in an Alzheimeric stupor on his way out to the mound. The 4th outfielder is Steve Finley who’s older than Alou and who’s production went off the cliff last year like the paper mountain climber on Price is Right. Omar Vizquel is still class at short and Pedro Feliz has some upside offensively at third, but Ray Durham is on the way down and Lance Niekro only walked 17 times in over 300 PA last year.

Matt Morris was a high-profile acquisition and should provide a solid 1-2 punch with a supposedly healthy Jason Schmidt. But Schmidt’s velocity has fallen victim to the Bermuda Triangle or the Juice Monster and has had to learn to pitch without the plus fastball that made him a Cy Young candidate in the early 2000’s. Noah Lowry had a solid 05 with a sub-4.00 era and 200 innings which is exactly what you want out of your #3 spot. Matt Cain projects to be in the rotation but needs to demonstrate better command (19BB in only 46IP).

Tim Worrell returns to the Giants’ pen after a stint in Philly and combines with former Cardinal Steve Kline for some needed depth behind Armando Benitez. Benitez’ 05 season was destroyed by injuries and he’s already reporting a barking knee in Spring Traning. The Giant division and wild card winners of the recent past had a rock solid Robb Nenn closing games and with a young rotation behind Schmidt and Morris, the bullpen has to step up for them.

The Prognosis:

With the distractions and the health problems, it’s hard to see Bonds playing more than 100 games, and even then, how many AB’s is he going to get? He should still preoccupy an opposing manager when in the lineup but there are too many if’s and too many miles on this team to see them finishing any higher than 2nd. But Brian Sabean has gotten more out of less before. My prediction: 81-81, 2nd place.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers 2005 Record 71-91 (685RS, 755RA)

The Breakdown:

LA is the trendy pick (and my pick because I’m a shamelessly biased bastard) in the NL West. Choose your “expert analysis” as to why:

a) Ned Coletti infused a horrible locker room with character guys who know how to win, shed the bad seeds, and didn’t tie up dollars blocking the paths of one of baseball’s richest farm systems

b) (*stat-lover bitch alert*) LA is due for a massive regression to the mean injury-wise. No team was as close last season in games lost to injury. There’s no way it can be as bad as it was last year (as a lifelong Dodger fan, let me tell you, it can always be worse than last year).

c) Everyone else is really fucking bad.

LA is still sorely hurting for power bats. Jeff Kent is the steadiest presence, but like many guys, the age shoe is ready to drop. Throw in a wrist surgery late in the winter and Kent could easily struggle to put up 20HR this year. JD Drew spends his days in church thanking his Maker that Russ Ortiz makes as much as he does so someone in the division is overpaid more than him. People will say Drew was unlucky last year to have been hit in the wrist and have it broken. I say “bullshit.” Drew misses months and months every single year for one reason or another. One idiot’s “luck” is another man’s “trend.” And he’ll miss a bunch more games this year. When Drew lands on the DL after severing a finger opening his Happy Meal, the lineup features a huge dearth of power. Nomar can’t be expected to regain his old stroke, especially playing as many games as he will at Dodger Stadium, Petco Park and Not-Candlestick Park.
Rafael Furcal is an impact free agent and should set the table along with Kenny Lofton, but Coletti lost his bet when he gambled on Gold Glove winner Cesar Izturis’ recovery time from Tommy John surgery. Izturis is the best defensive shortstop in the league, possibly in baseball. He’s projected to return to major league action by early may rather than the All-Star break. This has the makings of exactly the kind of locker room disaster Coletti tried to avoid by getting rid of basket case, Milton Bradley. With a healthy Izturis, you have one excellent shortstop sitting behind an above average one who happens to make $10M more than he does. Izturis doesn’t want to move to 2nd. Kent sure as hell doesn’t want to move to 1st. Nomar’s head is still spinning from learning to play first to move to the OF. Nomar should make it easy by blowing out his knee playing X-Box next week though.

The rotation expects to be solid, though unspectacular. Brad Penny, one year removed from vaginosis of the biceps, claims to have regained the snap on his curve. Derek Lowe is going to try not to wreck his home with any more reporters. Odalis Perez looks like he had his stomach stapled in the offseason. Brett Tomko is an ex-Giant fuckbag who is still very much Vince McMahonly in cahoots with Brian Sabean and is going to throw every start he makes against them. Jae Sao fills the #5 spot and wears glasses on the mound that he couldn’t break if he threw his fastball at them.

No player in baseball outside of Barry Bonds means more to his team’s success this year than Eric Gagne. Gagne is the face of the franchise, and not in a patronizing, look at the cute little guy hustle Paul LoDuca-y kind of way either. The guy has the sickest stuff outside of RBI Baseball on Nintendo. Much has been made of his velocity drop, but even in the low 90’s, Gagne can easily dominate with the best changeup in baseball or his Bugs Bunny curveball. If Gagne comes back to save 40+ games, it cuts the games to 6 or 7 innings and prevents Grady Little from having to make an actual decision. Danys (Danys?) Baez has closer stuff to fill the setup role and push one-pitch pony Yhency Brazoban back an inning.

The Prognosis:

Although 162-0 is definitely doable, I don’t want to damage my credibility by making such a bold prediction. LA is definitely the favorite and will have to face the expectations and perform. My prediction 87-75, 1st place.

5. Colorado Rockies

Fuck those shitty fuckers, I’m not wasting my time with them.